US Container Import Volumes Forecast to Decline Through First Half of 2026

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates have released forecasts showing that declining year-over-year import cargo volumes at major US container ports will continue into 2026. January 2026 is projected to see 2 million TEU, representing a 10.3% year-over-year decrease despite being the first month-over-month increase in six months. February is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, down 8.5% year-over-year. The first half of 2025 saw 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year-over-year, but the full year 2025 is forecast at 25.2 million TEU, a 1.4% decrease from 2024. The declines are attributed to ongoing tariff policies and trade policy uncertainties that continue to dampen importer confidence and capital investment decisions. The trend represents an unwinding of the front-loading that occurred in early 2025 as importers rushed to bring in goods ahead of potential tariff increases.

The sustained decline in US import volumes signals a fundamental shift in demand patterns that will ripple through the entire maritime supply chain. Unlike temporary disruptions, this trend reflects structural changes in trade policy and economic conditions that affect long-term planning for carriers, ports, and logistics providers. Reduced import volumes translate directly to lower vessel utilization rates on transpacific routes, putting additional downward pressure on freight rates that are already under stress from overcapacity. For US ports, particularly on the West Coast and Gulf Coast, declining volumes mean reduced revenue from terminal operations, storage fees, and ancillary services. The trend also reflects broader economic concerns about consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, and the impact of tariffs on retail pricing and demand.

Container shipping lines operating transpacific services will face reduced cargo availability, forcing difficult decisions about service frequency, vessel deployment, and blank sailings. US port operators will experience lower throughput volumes, affecting terminal utilization rates and revenue projections. Trucking and rail intermodal providers serving port drayage and inland distribution will see reduced demand for their services. Warehouse and distribution center operators may face lower occupancy rates as inventory levels adjust to reduced import flows. Retailers and importers will need to carefully manage inventory planning and sourcing strategies in an environment of trade policy uncertainty. The decline in volumes may also affect port labor negotiations and employment levels, particularly if the trend persists beyond the first half of 2026.

Monitor monthly port statistics from the Port of Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, and Savannah to track whether actual volumes align with NRF forecasts. Watch for carrier responses in the form of increased blank sailings or service suspensions on transpacific routes. Track the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and their impact on consumer spending and import demand. Observe developments in US trade policy, particularly regarding tariff adjustments or trade negotiations that could affect importer confidence. Monitor inventory-to-sales ratios in the retail sector as an indicator of whether import volumes will rebound in the second half of 2026. Finally, watch for any shifts in sourcing patterns, such as nearshoring to Mexico or Central America, which could partially offset declining Asian imports.