Maersk Tests Red Sea Transit as Carriers Weigh Suez Return
Maersk has completed two test passages through the Red Sea for the first time since Houthi attacks began, signaling potential for faster normalization but creating uncertainty about market impact.
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What Happened
Maersk successfully completed two test transits through the Red Sea in late January and early February 2026, marking the first passages through the region since Houthi attacks forced diversions around the Cape of Good Hope in late 2023. The transits were conducted with naval assistance as the carrier evaluates conditions ahead of the planned launch of its Gemini alliance service with Hapag-Lloyd. While Maersk cautiously advances, CMA CGM reversed an earlier decision to resume Red Sea routing, highlighting the ongoing volatility and risk assessments different carriers are making.
Why It Matters
The potential return to Red Sea transits represents a pivotal moment for global container shipping. The Cape of Good Hope diversions have absorbed an estimated 1.75 million TEU of vessel capacity—roughly 5-6% of the global fleet—helping offset structural overcapacity issues. If carriers rapidly resume Suez Canal routing, this capacity will flood back into the market precisely as demand weakens, potentially triggering a freight rate collapse. HSBC analysts warn a rapid resumption could push rates down an additional 10%, potentially pushing major carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd into losses.
What It Affects
European ports face potential congestion as vessels from both Cape and Suez routes could arrive simultaneously, creating a temporary capacity surge. Equipment imbalances may worsen in Asia as containers repositioned for longer voyages suddenly become surplus. Shippers with annual contracts locked at higher rates may find themselves paying premiums as spot rates decline. Insurance markets will also need to recalibrate war risk premiums, which currently stand at approximately 1% of hull value for Red Sea transits.
What to Watch Next
Monitor Maersk's official announcement on Gemini service routing decisions expected in the coming weeks. Watch for other carriers following with test transits or maintaining Cape routing. European port congestion metrics at Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Mediterranean hubs will indicate how well the system absorbs returning vessels. The Drewry World Container Index will signal rate direction as capacity dynamics shift.