Gemini ME11 Service Returns to Suez Canal Mid-February 2026 as Carriers Test Red Sea Waters

The Gemini Cooperation, a strategic alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, announced that its ME11 service connecting the Middle East to the US East Coast will structurally return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal route starting mid-February 2026. This marks one of the first major service realignments back to the traditional route since carriers diverted around the Cape of Good Hope in late 2023 due to security concerns. The move follows CMA CGM's earlier announcement of three services returning to Suez transits, including the INDAMEX service. Maersk had previously made its first unannounced transit through the Suez Canal in December 2025 with the Maersk Sebarok, testing the waters before committing to structural changes. The Gemini partners plan to implement similar changes to their AE12 and AE15 services later, contingent on regional stability. As of early February 2026, approximately 60 container ships used the Suez Canal in a two-week period, down slightly from 61 ships in late January, indicating continued cautious testing by carriers.

The return of major carrier services to the Red Sea represents a potential turning point for global container shipping networks that have operated under disrupted conditions for over a year. The ME11 service's transition reduces round-trip transit times by approximately two weeks compared to Cape routing, improving schedule reliability and service efficiency. This shift signals growing carrier confidence in Red Sea security conditions, though the cautious, service-by-service approach indicates that risks remain. The decision by industry leaders Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd could influence other carriers' routing strategies in the coming months. For shippers, the return offers the prospect of shorter transit times and potentially more predictable schedules, though the transition period itself may create temporary disruptions as vessels reposition and port calls adjust.

The ME11 service realignment directly impacts transit times and capacity allocation on Middle East to US East Coast routes, with shippers potentially seeing delivery windows compress by one to two weeks. The freed-up vessel capacity from shorter routing will contribute to the broader market's overcapacity challenges, potentially putting downward pressure on freight rates across multiple trade lanes. Port operations at Suez Canal-adjacent hubs may experience increased call volumes, while some Cape route ports could see reduced traffic. Insurance costs remain a factor, as Red Sea transits still carry war risk premiums, though these have moderated from peak levels. The transition creates planning complexity for shippers with cargo booked on affected services, requiring close coordination with freight forwarders to manage potential schedule adjustments during the changeover period.

Monitor whether Gemini's AE12 and AE15 services follow through with their planned Red Sea returns in the coming months, as this will indicate sustained confidence in route security. Track the number of weekly Suez Canal transits by container vessels, with significant increases above 60-70 ships signaling broader industry adoption. Watch for announcements from other major alliances—Ocean Alliance, THE Alliance, and Premier Alliance—regarding their Red Sea routing strategies. Pay attention to any security incidents in the Red Sea corridor, as these could trigger rapid reversals of routing decisions. Observe spot freight rate movements on Asia-Europe and Middle East-US routes, as increased capacity from shorter transits could accelerate rate declines. Finally, monitor port congestion levels at key European and US East Coast hubs, as the timing of vessel arrivals will shift with the route change, potentially creating temporary bottlenecks.