Carriers Announce 136 Blank Sailings in February as Rate Defense Fails

Container carriers deployed aggressive capacity management in February 2026, with Drewry reporting 136 blank sailings across East-West trades—a 122% month-on-month increase. SEKO Logistics tracked 107 cancellations, 38% above earlier projections. The Transpacific bore the brunt with 61% of the 76 blank sailings announced for the five-week period starting February 23, while Asia-Europe/Mediterranean routes accounted for 24%. For the three weeks post-February 5, carriers scheduled 73 Transpacific and 34 Asia-Europe cancellations to manage post-Lunar New Year factory slowdowns. Simultaneously, slow steaming adoption accelerated as a structural strategy, driven by chronic overcapacity (orderbook exceeding 30% of active fleet), profitability pressure, and EU ETS compliance costs. The Ocean Alliance confirmed continuation of its Day10 product from April 1 and extended its operational agreement through 2032, maintaining Cape of Good Hope routing for all Asia-Europe services. However, despite these measures, rates continued falling—the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index dropped 14.16% to 1,251.46 points, Drewry WCI declined for the fifth consecutive week, and Xeneta spot rates from Far East to North Europe and US West Coast fell to $2,320 and $2,052 per FEU respectively by February 13.

The failure of aggressive blanking to arrest rate declines reveals the depth of the structural supply-demand imbalance facing the industry in 2026. With fleet capacity projected to grow 3.6% against demand growth of only 3%, and vessel scrapping at a 20-year low creating a 1.8 million TEU recycling overhang, carriers face a prolonged period of overcapacity that tactical capacity management cannot fully offset. Spot rates from Far East to US collapsed over 50% year-on-year by mid-February, pushing major carriers like Maersk and ONE into operating losses in late 2025. The early 2026 Transpacific rate spike to $2,617 per FEU proved temporary, with the underlying trend firmly downward. Escalating regulatory costs from EU ETS—requiring carriers to surrender allowances for 70% of 2025 emissions in 2026—compound financial strain. Slow steaming has evolved from a fuel cost response to a fundamental network design component, with the Red Sea crisis demonstrating its capacity-absorption potential (6-8% of global capacity absorbed via longer Cape routing). The market has entered a 'structural reset' where carriers prioritize survival over growth, giving shippers unprecedented negotiating leverage for 2026 contracts.

Shippers face a paradox: lower freight costs but significantly degraded service reliability. Aggressive blanking creates higher cargo rollover risks, last-minute schedule changes, and supply chain unpredictability—making schedule reliability overtake freight cost as the primary concern. Port operations experience counterintuitive congestion despite fewer vessel calls, with San Pedro Bay (LA/Long Beach) seeing vessel dwell times spike 91% and 61% respectively as remaining services 'bunch' together, creating terminal inefficiency. Contract negotiations for 2026 heavily favor shippers due to weak carrier pricing power, but procurement strategies must balance favorable long-term rate locks against the need for flexibility to manage service disruptions. The Ocean Alliance's network stability through 2032 provides some predictability, but continued Cape routing on Asia-Europe trades means 15-20% longer transit times remain the norm. Carriers face mounting pressure to intensify capacity discipline—potential for increased vessel layups (currently minimal unlike 2009/2020 downturns) and accelerated scrapping if charter rates decline further. New service launches remain minimal and niche-focused (e.g., Cosco's Ningbo-Latin America EV export service), signaling carriers' reluctance to inject broad capacity. Supply chain planning must incorporate buffer time and dual-sourcing strategies to mitigate blanking-induced delays.

Track weekly blank sailing announcements from Drewry and Sea-Intelligence, particularly the Transpacific and Asia-Europe concentration ratios—sustained high cancellation rates signal continued weak demand. Monitor the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), Drewry WCI, and Xeneta spot rate indices for inflection points; consecutive weekly increases would signal demand recovery, while continued declines suggest deeper structural issues. The critical wildcard is Red Sea normalization—a large-scale return to Suez Canal routing would release 6-9% of global capacity currently absorbed by Cape diversions, likely triggering sharp rate declines and forcing even more aggressive blanking. Watch for carrier announcements of vessel layups or hot/cold stacking programs, which would signal a shift from slow steaming to more drastic capacity withdrawal. Port congestion metrics at San Pedro Bay, Singapore, and Rotterdam serve as operational health indicators—improving dwell times would suggest better schedule coordination. Monitor Ocean Alliance and other alliance network adjustments, particularly any Suez Canal return plans or service restructuring. Carrier Q1 2026 earnings reports (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, ONE) will reveal profitability levels and strategic responses to the downcycle. Track EU ETS allowance prices and carrier compliance costs—rising carbon costs could accelerate slow steaming adoption and older vessel scrapping. Watch for General Rate Increase (GRI) announcements and their success rates; failed GRIs indicate zero pricing power. The potential for industry consolidation increases as smaller carriers struggle—monitor M&A activity and alliance membership changes. Any uptick in vessel scrapping from the current 20-year low would signal charter market weakness but could help rebalance supply over 6-12 months.